As Israel's latest attack on
the Gaza Strip continues,
both Hamas and Israel
appear to support the idea
of a ceasefire, but they
differ on the conditions. Since neither side wants
to carry on fighting, and
neither have very radical
goals, a settlement must
be close.

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For the Palestinians, there can
be no ceasefire without an
end to the siege on Gaza,
regardless of how this is
reached. There can also be no
ceasefire without Israel pledging that they will not
resume their assassinations
when things are calmer, and
attacks by both sides have
stopped.

Israel's history of
confrontation with the
resistance in Lebanon and
Palestine shows that they
cannot easily control the
outcome of the wars they start. In this most recent
assault, the Israelis appear to
have assumed that the initial
air raids would put an end to
the threat posed by
Palestinian groups in Gaza; Israel would disable Hamas'
ability to respond with rocket
fire, forcing the Palestinian
faction to accept Israeli
demands..

However, facts on the ground
changed things, and the
Palestinians are now in a
position to set their own
conditions. Both sides realize
that for Israel to be able to impose its conditions, it will
have to launch a ground
invasion of the whole of the
Gaza Strip, or at least major
parts of it. They also realize
that this is a gamble with no guaranteed outcome. A
ground invasion is a risk
which could push Israel into
positions it does not want to
be in and which it cannot
withstand. Israel knows this. Its problem is that the
Palestinians also know it..

The Palestinians do not have
much to lose. The siege on
Gaza is already in effect. The
bombing and destruction have
targeted Hamas' political,
economic, and military institutions. But through this
scene of siege and destruction,
rays of light have emerged
for the Palestinians. They have
demonstrated a clear ability to
launch rockets of various kinds, and over long distances.
They have also shown an
ability to absorb the sudden
preventative strikes Israel has
always counted on..

The resistance forces in Gaza
are firing an unprecedented
200 rockets a day. This is no
easy task, from either an
intelligence or a logistical point
of view. The fighters have to maneuver in very difficult
conditions. Israel's intelligence
services watch their every
move.

As the battle rages on, the
political and indirect
negotiations have reached a
frantic note. Each side is
insistent on their own
conditions for a ceasefire. Israel is prepared to go back
to how things were before
the attack: a temporary
ceasefire in exchange for a
long-term ceasefire, with
third party promises that it will not be broken. But the
Palestinians are clinging to
their own conditions, most
importantly an end to the
blockade and the ongoing
assassination of their leaders..
http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/gaza-attack-will-break-siege